Assessing the L4/L5 Autonomous Vehicle Patent Landscape (Q2 2021)

Background

This is the second in a series of quarterly reports from Tech+IP Advisory analyzing the global patent landscape for L4/L5 autonomous vehicles (AV). The first report in the series, published in Q1 2021, is available as a free L4/L5 Autonomous Vehicle Patent Landscape Report. In addition to committing to quarterly publication given the fast-moving pace of the industry, the report was researched and published with several goals in mind:

• We aligned our terminology with the Society of Automotive Engineers’ AV taxonomy^[1];
• We published our full query strings and methodology so that any third party can reproduce, critique, or improve on our results, a standard borrowed from academic literature that we believe the IP community should adopt more broadly;
• We took a global point of view and applied rough-cut methods to assess potential patent strength, while acknowledging that a claims-level review remains the gold standard;
• Perhaps most importantly, we invited comments and feedback from  engineers and practitioners who share our belief that a common  lexicon—the IP equivalent of a common system of weights and measures—is what  moves the field forward. In this context, “field” refers to the securing of patents as an incentive for, and result of fundamental research and development, which involves substantial cost and significant risk.

We have published the Full Q1 2021 report for free download. A synopsis was published by IAM, the leading industry journal, in their article New Patent Data Points: One Reason Why Amazon Made Its $1.2 Billion Self-Driving Bet.

What follows is Tech+IP Advisory’s Q2 2021 report.

Feedback and Improvements

The Q1 report generated substantial feedback, and we are grateful for it. Much of it came from representatives of companies that are themselves active filer in the AV patent space, making their perspective particularly valuable. The comments fell into a few recurring themes: suggestions for refining the search algorithm to better distinguish true positives from noise; questions about why we capped our charts and rankings at 25 or 50 companies; and, most consistently, a challenge to our 2015 start date. The latter came up repeatedly, with several respondents noting that meaningful AV patent activity predates that cutoff and that excluding it paints an incomplete picture. Tech+IP is working to integrate all the feedback into the landscape process. The date expansion was both the most compelling and the most straightforward fix, so we have addressed it in this report. The remaining feedback is being worked into the broader landscape methodology and will be reflected in future updates.

When Tech+IP ran the analysis with the expanded date range, a clear patter emerged: the patent “priority date” curve maps closely to an innovation curve of roughly five-year waves. Seven-year segments proved to be too broad, given the sharp increases in the curve. We have therefore decided to break the results into  five-year segments going forward basis, a structure we believe reflects the distinct eras in L4/L5 innovation. (Feedback on the core search algorithm was equally valuable and is being incorporated into a more substantial methodology update planned for the second half of the year.)

This Q2 2021 report covers patents issued or published with invention dates from January 1, 2010, through March 31, 2021, organized into three distinct periods:

• 2010 – 2014 (we call this the “Pioneer Phase”)
• 2015 – 2019 (we call this the “R&D Phase”)
• 2020 – Present (we call this the “Productization Gen 1 Phase”)

Key Takeaways

• In response to reader feedback, Tech+IP is now publishing a Full Company Overview List for the L4/L5 Patent Space (2010–2021) in the interest of complete transparency.
• Extending the analysis back to January 1, 2010 surfaced approximately 2,400 additional patents and brought the "Pioneer Phase" leading companies into focus: Waymo (17% of the patents in the Pioneer Phase), followed by Ford (at 5%), and Porsche, Bosch, Toyota, and Cruise at approximately 4% each. The full rankings are available in the Pioneer Phase Company Overview List.
• Q1 2021 saw a 7% quarter-over-quarter decline in patent activity relative to Q4 2020. The five most active companies in the January–April 2021 period—Waymo, LGE, Toyota, Porsche, and Hyundai—collectively account for 25% of  patents in the quarter. Looking ahead, several recent M&A activities will be integrated into future reports as patent assignments and transfers occur, including Lyft’s driverless unit sale to Toyota^[2], Cruise’s acquisition of  Voyage^[3], Uber’s sale of its driverless car unit to Aurora Innovations^[4], and others.

Patent Landscape Analysis:

A note on methodology: the team performs manual spot checks on the top 50 companies and their patents for each phase (e.g., the Pioneer Phase, R&D Phase, and Productization Gen 1 Phase but resource constraints prevent the same level of review for the remainder of the dataset. We flag this transparently, and, as always, welcome readers to provide feedback on any results that warrant a second look.

The fully updated Company Overview Landscape list is available as the Full AV Patent Landscape Company Rankings.

Pioneer Phase (2010-2014)

The Pioneer Phase encompasses approximately 450 companies and 2,400 active L4/L5 patents. Waymo stands apart from the field, holding 17% of the total number of patents, more than three times the count of any other company. This lead reflects the company’s early and sustained commitment to R&D paired with a seasoned patent operation. Ford follows Waymo in the 2010-2014 Pioneer Phase, and Porsche, Bosch, Cruise, and Toyota at patentees three through six. Beyond these six, concentration drops off sharply.

Extending the dataset back to 2010–2014 also significantly affected overall ranks (Cumulative 2010–Present). Waymo, for instance, jumped from 9th to 3rd place, while Toyota fell from 2nd to 4th.

Geographically, the US led all regions with 43% of Pioneer Phase patents, followed by Europe at 23% and “APAC”(China excluded) with 18%. Waymo tops the rankings in the US, China, and APAC (China excluded), while the European picture looks different: Porsche leads in the EU with Bosch in second place.

R&D Phase (2015-2019)

The R&D Phase spans  2015 through 2019 and, as the name suggests, is defined by a sharp acceleration in patent activity. According to the Tech+IP methodology,  approximately 1,800 companies hold at least one patent in L4/L5 patent during this period. This time period also brought a new wave of entrants into the patent landscape, including Stradvision, Tusimple, Lyft, Nvidia, and DeepMap. 

It is worth noting that patents in the R&D Phase—those with earliest invention dates between 2015 and 2019—continue to be published into Q1 2021, meaning these figures are expected to accumulate for some time. A patent with a 2016 priority date, for example, may only now be appearing in the public record. To quantify this effect, Tech+IP analyzed the impact of three additional months of patent publication results on the data presented last quarter. Those deltas are reflected in the chart below.

All companies shown have more than 15 published patents as of the close of Q1 2021. The percentage reflect the change in published patent counts for this phase attributable to the additional three months of publications.

Several well-known companies in the AV industry, including Uber, Honda, Bosch, Cruise, and BMW, showed a slowdown in published patents within the R&D Phase during this period, while Nissan, Stradvision, PlusAI, Nio, and Aptiv recorded no new publications at all. Tech+IP will continue to monitor and analyze these companies in further report updates to determine whether the pattern holds or an underlying cause emerges.

Productization Gen 1 Phase (2020-Present)

The consensus among industry experts is that the next five years may bring the full-scale launch of the AV car. We call this period Productization Gen 1, and the early signs are already visible: Waymo and Cruise are advancing in the US^[5], Baidu is doing the same in China^[6], and Cruise has announced plans for the Arabian Peninsula by 2023^[7]. According to Tech+IP’s research (and data provided by Innography), the following companies are leaders in patents from 2020 to present. (Note that so called “inventors” – individuals without recorded assignments to a company – represent that largest number of patents in this period.) If history repeats itself in the manner that it has for other technologies, one would expect this “self held” number to diminish relatively rapidly over the period, including potentially to organizations often referred to as “Non-Practicing Entities” (“NPEs”) that specialize in patent licensing.

Cumulative Analysis

The following chart takes a cumulative view of the full period from January 2020 to present. As noted earlier, Innography data indicates that approximately 6% of the patents in this period (1,251 in total)  remain unassigned to any corporation and belong solely to the inventors.

One trend that emerged clearly this quarter and bears close watching is the volume of newly published patent applications. As noted in the Q1 report, a significant number of applications were expected to remain unpublished due to the standard 18-month publication rule. That backlog is now coming through: this quarter saw a 25% increase in published 2019 patents and a 24% increase in 2020 patents. We expect this to be a recurring dynamic for the foreseeable future and will incorporate it into quarterly results.

Our review also surfaced  a notable finding concerning State Farm. A series of State Farm applications published during in Q1 2021 carry earliest priority dates stretching   back to 2010, reflecting a long-running continuation practice that had not previously appeared in the data. The effect on the Pioneer Phase rankings was significant: State Farm now holds 7th place in that phase and ranks 25th cumulative.

Sources